Why a Trump Presidency Invigorates US-Philippine Relations

The overwhelming mandate given by American voters to US President-elect Donald Trump resonates positively to one of its closest allies in the Indo-Pacific, the Philippines. US President Donald Trump has a comprehensive understanding of Chinese cognitive warfare and aggressive actions in the South China Sea. Trump recognizes the difficulties that the Philippines is undergoing due to the malign efforts of the People’s Republic of China.

Current US support to assist the Philippines led to significant milestones. The signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., grants the Philippines access to advanced capabilities such as satellite imagery and electronic intelligence which will improve situational awareness and result in a calibrated response to China’s aggressive actions. Both Secretaries opened a state-of-the-art Combined Coordination Center (South China Morning Post, November 19, 2024). The establishment of the US Ayungin Task Force gives Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance maritime domain awareness support to the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ Western Command (GMA News Online, 21 November 2024). Furthermore, a two-pronged strategy of including American vessels and Filipino American naval officers for regular resupply missions may offer a boost to maritime stability (Stratsea, 14 November 2024).

President Trump led the charge against Chinese malign influence which includes Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) intentions and actions, not only in the US, but also, among its allies. For example, the first Trump Administration built cooperative partnerships with foreign allies, to espouse a free and open order. The Trump Administration had a pivotal hand in the Department of Defense June 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report and the Department of State November 2019 report on A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision. The Trump Administration fostered mutually aligned visions such as the European Association’s EU-China: A Strategic Outlook of March 2019, the Association of Southeast Asian Nation’s Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, the Republic of Korea’s New Southern Policy, Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy, Japan’s free and open Indo-Pacific vision, India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region Policy, and Australia’s Indo-Pacific Concept. It is highly likely that the second Trump Administration will continue these initiatives.

During the first Trump Administration, Chinese cognitive warfare merited a strong response from the US intelligence community as exemplified by 2017 National Security Strategy of the United States of America which aimed to: (1) protect the American people, homeland, and way of life; (2) promote American prosperity; (3) preserve peace through strength; and (4) advance American influence. The Trump Administration worked to heighten the resiliency of its institutions, alliances, and partnerships to prevail against the malign actions the PRC presents and actively combatted Beijing’s co-optation and coercion of its own citizens in the United States academic institutions. Furthermore, the US compelled China to either stop or reduce actions harmful to the interests of the US and its allies. The US government responded vigorously to CCP propaganda in the United States by highlighting malign behavior, countering false narratives, and compelling transparency (US United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China).

I highlight five main areas where Trump’s clear-eyed and robust views on the Indo-Pacific closely intertwines with that of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Specifically, President Trump’s robust views on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, the importance of US naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, US economic statecraft, the inextricable link between security and prosperity and the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific are strategic.

First, on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, President Trump stated that “… our vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific — a place where sovereign and independent nations, with diverse cultures and many different dreams, can all prosper side-by-side, and thrive in freedom and in peace.” (Remarks of Trump at APEC Summit, November 10, 2017). Trump highlights the importance of unfettered commerce in the seas which contributes to the economic growth and prosperity of nations.

Similarly, President Marcos mentioned the importance of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. Marcos explained, “We sought to uphold and preserve the integrity of our country’s physical unity through international law. Together with others, we put forward the archipelagic doctrine, which regards all archipelagic states as a single unit, with the waters around, between, and connecting their islands, irrespective of their breadth and dimensions, forming part of their internal waters. This doctrine has since been enshrined in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.” (Keynote Address of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. for the 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, May 31, 2024). In addition, Marcos made known that the country’s definition of its territory and its maritime zones are clearly aligned with what international law permits and recognizes.

Second, Trump brought into the open the importance of US naval presence in the Indo-Pacific. Trump declared, “In 1817, our Congress approved the first full-time Pacific development [deployment] of an American warship. That initial naval presence soon grew into a squadron, and then a fleet, to guarantee freedom of navigation for the growing number of ships, braving the high seas to reach markets in the Philippines, Singapore, and in India.” (Remarks of President Trump at APEC Summit, November 10, 2017). The US House of Representatives Resolution No. 837 was approved last November 20, 2024.  This resolution reaffirmed the friendship and mutual commitment to security and economic partnership between the US and the Philippines. The resolution called on the US and the Philippines to conduct more joint patrols in the South China Sea to underscore the importance of freedom of navigation and overflight (Philippine News Agency, 21 November 2024).

During the visit of US Defense Secretary Austin to the Philippines, President Marcos joined him in pushing for a deeper coordination to address challenges in the South China Sea. Furthermore, US Secretary Austin emphasized U.S. support for the Philippines in defending its sovereign rights and jurisdiction and stressed US commitment to strengthening Philippine defense capabilities to resist coercion from China. (US Department of Defense, Joint Press Release on the Visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin to the Philippines, 19 November 2024).

Third, Trump attested to the importance of US economic statecraft that upholds and energizes private enterprise, innovation, and industry. He stated, “At the core of this partnership, we seek robust trade relationships rooted in the principles of fairness and reciprocity. When the United States enters into a trading relationship with other countries or other peoples, we will, from now on, expect that our partners will faithfully follow the rules just like we do.”(Remarks of President Trump at APEC Summit, November 10, 2017). US Trade Secretary Gina Raimondo reaffirmed the importance of United States-Philippines trade and investment relations through a US$1 billion investment (US Department of Commerce, 12 March 2024). The U.S. Trade and Development Agency leveraged over US$500 million to develop high-quality infrastructure encompassing renewable energy, smart grids, vessel traffic management system upgrades, customs and supply chain modernization, healthcare solutions, and aviation infrastructure. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) mobilized private sector investment in priority areas such as critical minerals, ports, airports and renewable energy. Furthermore, Japan and the United States financed the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment corridor in the Indo-Pacific, known as the Luzon Economic Corridor. This economic corridor will receive investments in rail, ports modernization, clean energy, semiconductor supply chains and deployments, agribusiness. The United States partnered with the Philippines to explore opportunities in the semiconductor ecosystem (Fact Sheet: Celebrating the Strength of the U.S.-Philippines Alliance, 11 April 2024).

Subsequently, President Marcos advocated the close cooperation between the US and the Philippines in defense and security, trade and investment, food security, energy security, renewable energy, climate action, digital transformation, infrastructure development, and humanitarian assistance (Presidential Communications Office, 11 November 2024).

Fourth, Trump emphasized that security and prosperity goes side by side. Trump revealed, “In the next century, when imperialist powers threatened this region, the United States pushed back at great cost to ourselves. We understood that security and prosperity depended on it.” (Remarks of President Trump at APEC Summit, November 10, 2017).

President Marcos reaffirmed that trade and security works in tandem. He believed that securing global supply chains is essential. When he was a Senator, he supported the Strategic Trade Management Act since it focused on the export control of strategic goods such as those used by the military. He acknowledged that emerging technologies demands that countries need to take into account the dual-use nature of new technologies. Marcos expressed, “This summit is not merely about managing trade; it is also about mitigating risks, promoting stability and confidence in our regulatory regimes, and ensuring that the tools of our progress do not become weapons of our destruction.” (Speech by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. at the Philippine Strategic Trade Management Summit 2024, September 9, 2024).

Fifth, Trump clearly asserted the commitment of the US to the Indo-Pacific. He averred, “We have been friends, partners, and allies in the Indo-Pacific for a long, long time, and we will be friends, partners, and allies for a long time to come.” (Remarks of President Trump at APEC Summit, November 10, 2017).

Bolstering US-Japan-Philippines maritime security, President Marcos pointed out the stability of having a shared vision and the pursuit of a peaceful, sand prosperous Indo-Pacific. He disclosed that the three countries continuously uphold the rule of law (Remarks by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Republic of the Philippines Before Trilateral, April 11, 2024).

To bring to a close, the Trump Presidency invigorates US Philippine relations in multiple ways. One, the incoming Trump Administration will help the Philippines counter Chinese cognitive warfare and aggressive actions in the South China Sea. Two, Trump’s clear-eyed and robust views on the Indo-Pacific, namely, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, the importance of US naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, US economic statecraft, the inextricable link between security and prosperity and the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific, intertwines closely with that of President Marcos. By supporting shared principles of a free and open order, and by protecting shared interests and values, the US government and the Philippine government will take the necessary actions to achieve its strategic objectives.